World Market Insights – Week 22, 2025: From Pause to Pivots – Markets, Macro, Exits, and the Goldilocks Dilemma
June 01, 2025•6 min read
Pour yourself my favourite drink… a double espresso… and settle in, because Week 22 delivered yet another twist in the 2025 market drama. After last week’s “FOMO to Pause” reality check, this week saw investors wrestling with mixed signals: equities bounced, gold staged a comeback, and central bankers continued their high-wire act with all the poise of a juggler at a circus.
As usual, I’ll reflect on what changed, what didn’t, and what it all means for your portfolio, with a few final thoughts on the Goldilocks dilemma facing investors everywhere.
And since Beaufort’s Private Equity Masterclass is underway (with next week’s session on exits), I thought I’d serve up some brunch-time reading on the macro realities of private equity exits, no homework required, just a little perspective to chew on while you balance that messy egg on your fork and sip your second coffee.
Recap: Where We Left Off (Week 21)
Last week, we saw the exuberance of Week 20 give way to a more measured tone:
- Profit-taking and rebalancing after a FOMO-fueled surge.
- US credit downgrade and sticky UK inflation reminded us that fiscal and monetary realities matter.
- Gold stabilized after its wild swing, and Bitcoin kept flirting with record highs.
- The mood? “Pause and reassess” with the CNN Fear & Greed Index sliding from “Greed” to “Neutral.”
This Week: Markets Bounce, Macro Clouds Linger
US & Global Equities:
- S&P 500 and Nasdaq rebounded after last week’s pullback, with tech regaining some lost ground. The Dow joined the party, up over 1.8%.
- FTSE 100 continued to grind higher, supported by a resilient UK economy and a still-dovish Bank of England.
- DAX (Germany) and European equities were mixed, with the DAX holding near record highs but showing signs of fatigue.
- Gold snapped back nearly 6% to $3,360/oz, reclaiming all of last week’s losses as investors hedged against renewed volatility.
- Bitcoin notched another record, briefly topping $112,000 before settling just below.
Macro & Policy:
- US Treasury yields remained elevated, with the 30-year above 5% (a level not seen since 2023) as deficit worries and the credit downgrade lingered.
- Fed minutes (May 7) confirmed the “higher for longer” stance, with policymakers focused on sticky inflation and a cautious approach to rate cuts.
- China’s PMI remained in contraction (49.5), as trade tensions with both the US and EU weighed on manufacturing and sentiment. However, Q1 GDP growth was a robust 5.4% YoY, and hopes for a US-China tariff thaw are building.
- Europe & UK: UK inflation remains stubborn, but the FTSE is buoyed by a global risk-on mood. The euro area is showing slow but positive momentum.
Sentiment:
- The CNN Fear & Greed Index has bounced back to 62 in “Greed” territory, reflecting renewed optimism and a familiar whiff of FOMO. Check the latest reading here.
Weekly Market Table
What’s Pertinent This Week?
- Central Bank Tightrope: The Fed’s “higher for longer” message is being echoed by other central banks, but markets are still hoping for a Goldilocks outcome—not too hot, not too cold. The risk? Policy error if inflation proves stickier than hoped, or if growth slows too quickly.
- China’s Crosswinds: Despite strong Q1 GDP, China’s manufacturing PMI remains in contraction as trade tensions with the US and EU drag on. The world’s second-largest economy is still searching for footing, and any breakthrough in tariffs could change the global mood.
- US Fiscal Worries: The credit downgrade and rising Treasury yields are a reminder that deficits and debt service costs are back in the spotlight. The 30-year yield above 5% is a wake-up call for risk assets and government budgets alike.
- Gold’s Comeback: After last week’s breather, gold’s sharp rebound is a timely reminder that the old yellow metal still has a role to play as a hedge when volatility and uncertainty return.
Ed’s Portfolio Corner: The Goldilocks Dilemma
As we continue our journey in private equity and portfolio management education, it’s worth pausing to ask: are we in a “just right” market, or is the porridge about to spill? The reality is, markets are caught between the hope for soft landings and the risk of policy missteps. That’s why I keep harping on diversification and resilience….because in a world of shifting narratives, you need assets that can zig when others zag.
Gold’s rebound this week is a perfect case in point. After being left for dead during the FOMO rally, it’s back in demand as investors hedge against both inflation and policy error. Bitcoin’s record run, meanwhile, shows that the appetite for “alternative hedges” is alive and well. And as China’s data shows, global growth is anything but a straight line.
So, as you contemplate your next allocation over that Sunday breakfast, remember: the markets are rarely “just right” for long. Stay nimble, stay curious, and don’t be afraid to keep a little gold (or even some digital gold) in your mix.
Navigating the Exit Maze: Macro Insights for Beaufort’s Upcoming Private Equity Training Course
As the Beaufort Society portfolio of investments matures this year and next, we’re expecting to see a wave of exits from our holdings. And with next week’s Beaufort Private Equity course focused on exits, I thought it timely to offer a macro-economic perspective on the realities and opportunities facing private equity sellers today.
Don’t worry ….. this isn’t homework …. unless you’re angling for “teacher’s pet” status! Think of it as some extra food for thought to bring along to the course, or to chew over with your Sunday brunch.
If you’re not yet a course member and want to join the conversation, you can sign up here: http://beaufortsociety.com/privateequitycourse
Ed’s Final Word
Week 22 reminded us that markets are never static. After a pause, the bounce returned—but so did the questions about growth, policy, and what comes next. Central banks are still holding the reins, but the road ahead is anything but straight.
For private equity and risk asset investors, the lesson is clear: keep your eyes on the horizon, your portfolio balanced, and your breakfast hearty.
As always, these are the thoughts and opinions of mine and no one else’s—not even Beaufort Private Equity Limited. Please do your own research before making investment decisions and reach out to your Beaufort relationship manager if you have any queries or follow-ups.
Further Reading:
- Manulife John Hancock – Weekly Market Recap
- Reuters – China’s May manufacturing activity likely contracted for second straight month
- KPMG – China Economic Monitor Q2 2025
- Comerica – May 2025 U.S. Economic Outlook
- Federal Reserve – FOMC Minutes, May 2025
- McKinsey Global Private Markets Report 2025
Week 22, 2025: In markets, the only constant is change—so keep your wits, your watchlist, and your breakfast close at hand.
#PrivateEquityInsights#GoldilocksEconomy#PortfolioDiversification#CentralBankPolicy#BeaufortPrivateEquity
– Practicing Chartered Accountant; experienced (25+ years) finance professional for regulated financial services organisations – Director and co-owner of Gibraltar FSC regulated Company & Trust Management Company – Strong financial modelling and financial planning and analysis for FTSE listed financial conglomerate – Treasurer (£1BN of AUM and £250M of regulatory capital) for regulated financial services organisation – Board experienced (both Group and subsidiary) along with leadership chairing committees – Experienced at running large multi located departments and teams – Corporate Finance experience in both technology, private equity and banking M&A – International audit experience UK GAAP, US GAAP, IFRS and Gibraltar GAAP – Strong managerial finance, financial accounting and financial internal control including Sarbanes Oxley audits – ERP implementation experience in Oracle and NetSuite and online accounting systems – Big 4 ACA qualification with treasury, finance, corporate finance and consultancy experience – Cambridge university education
